Thought leadership and market commentary on bitcoin cycles, digital asset investing, and blockchain technology, from Michael Terpin and the Transform Ventures team.
Michael Terpin's Four Seasons model maps bitcoin's price to a predictable four-year cycle driven by the halving. This framework has become one of the most widely referenced models for understanding where bitcoin is in its macro trajectory, and more importantly, where it's headed next.
With each halving reducing supply while institutional demand accelerates through spot ETFs, the math points to a dramatically higher bitcoin price over the next two cycles. This isn't wishful thinking, it's the logical conclusion of basic supply and demand economics applied to the most scarce digital asset ever created.
The Bitcoin Supercycle Fund combines seasonal awareness with algorithmic execution. This dual-layer approach leverages the best of both worlds: macro cycle positioning informed by the Four Seasons model and micro-level trade optimization driven by quantitative signals.
Most digital asset hedge funds diversify across dozens of altcoins, diluting returns and adding complexity. Managing a portfolio of 50 or 100 different tokens requires deep expertise across multiple ecosystems, constant rebalancing, and exposure to projects that may not survive the next bear market. The result is often mediocre performance that fails to justify the fees charged.
Whether you're raising capital, launching a token, or need strategic guidance, let's connect.